SKorea conservatives set to win election

SEOUL - The conservative party of new South Korean President Lee Myung-Bak is poised to win Wednesday’s general election despite a barrage of threats from North Korea against his administration, analysts say.
The former CEO won a huge victory over his liberal rival in December’s presidential poll with his “Economy First!” pledge.
Lee now wants his ruling Grand National Party (GNP) to secure a parliamentary majority over the liberal United Democratic Party (UDP) so he can enact sweeping changes designed to revitalise the economy.
And even though North Korea last week labelled him a traitor, a US sycophant and a political charlatan, he is likely to get his wish.
North Korea announced Thursday it was suspending all dialogue with South Korea, the culmination of a week of growing cross-border tensions.
It has also expelled South Korean officials from a joint industrial complex, test-fired missiles and threatened to turn the South into “ashes” should Seoul launch any pre-emptive strike.
Pyongyang is furious at Lee’s tougher line linking economic aid to the North’s progress in nuclear disarmament, and at his declared readiness to raise the issue of human rights abuses.
Lee’s government “is driving North-South relations to confrontation and catastrophe,” North Korea said Thursday.
Analysts say the North may be testing Lee’s resolve and trying to sway people against the GNP.
“North Korea’s recent threats are causing concern and are certain to sway some voters. But unlike in the past, the impact is not so big this time,” said Park Myung-Ho, a Dongguk University political science professor.
“Our political culture is mature enough to digest such developments. North Korea is no longer a decisive factor in South Korean elections.”
Sungkyunkwan University political science professor Kim Il-Young agreed the recent threats would have no significant impact on the election.
Voters in fact don’t seem hugely interested in anything this time. The National Election Commission fears a record low turnout of around 52 percent—and is running campaigns to get out the vote.
“Low turnout is a long-term trend but political parties and politicians are also failing to rouse voters’ interest, especially in this parliamentary election,” said Kim.
“The parties put up candidates only about two weeks before the election, depriving many voters of chances to get acquainted with their background and policy planks.”
Park said public interest in politics has waned gradually since the presidential election, but both analysts forecast a GNP victory.
Feuds in both major parties over candidate selection have fuelled disenchantment.
The GNP’s hopes of winning two-thirds of the 299-seat National Assembly have faded due to a deep split between Lee’s supporters and followers of his party rival Park Geun-Hye.
Park has announced she will not campaign for party candidates in protest at the exclusion of many of her supporters from the nomination list. Many of these have bolted from the GNP to form a ”Pro-Park Alliance.”
The UDP says it hopes to win at least 100 parliamentary seats so it can stop any moves by the GNP to change the constitution. It appeals for a large opposition presence in parliament to keep the government in check.
“It goes without saying that the arrogant ruling party will push through government policies designed solely for the country’s privileged sector, should it win big in the elections,” UDP leader Sohn Hak-kyu said Thursday.
In February, before a series of breakaways by members, the GNP had 130 seats and the UDP had 135.
A poll last week predicted the GNP will win 144 of the 245 directly-elected seats compared to 71 for the UDP, with the rest shared among minor parties and independents.
The other 54 seats are allotted by proportional representation depending on each party’s share of the vote.